Terrible Realization

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Age 21-23 seasons, EDLC (1622 PA): .258/.334/.456/.789
Age 21-23 seasons, Jay Bruce (1412 PA): .257/.327/.474/.800
Age 23 season, EDLC: .279/.355/.474/.829
Age 23 season, Jay Bruce: .281/.353/.493/.846

Don't get me wrong, Jay Bruce was a good player, but he wasn't someone you could build a team around and I feel like EDLC is nearly identical to the Bruce track rather than a true superstar that can put a large piece of the offense on his back.

We're going to need to either draft, develop (both of those would have to happen quickly), or trade for another big time difference maker on offense if we want any real window while we still have Elly here.

[samhain]

(08-08-2025, 09:22 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Age 21-23 seasons, EDLC (1622 PA): .258/.334/.456/.789
Age 21-23 seasons, Jay Bruce (1412 PA): .257/.327/.474/.800
Age 23 season, EDLC: .279/.355/.474/.829
Age 23 season, Jay Bruce: .281/.353/.493/.846

Don't get me wrong, Jay Bruce was a good player, but he wasn't someone you could build a team around and I feel like EDLC is nearly identical to the Bruce track rather than a true superstar that can put a large piece of the offense on his back.

We're going to need to either draft, develop (both of those would have to happen quickly), or trade for another big time difference maker on offense if we want any real window while we still have Elly here.

This team has shown no indication that they are willing to sign an impact power bat.  It's going to have to arrive internally, and I just don't see that player right now.  It was supposed to be CES, but that looks like a lost cause.  

[SunsetBengal]

Hitters are to Castellini what Guards are to Mike Brown.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-08-2025, 09:33 PM)samhain Wrote: This team has shown no indication that they are willing to sign an impact power bat.  It's going to have to arrive internally, and I just don't see that player right now.  It was supposed to be CES, but that looks like a lost cause.  

(08-08-2025, 10:05 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Hitters are to Castellini what Guards are to Mike Brown.

It was supposed to be Senzel, who was considered a good hitter entering the draft.
And then India, Stephenson, EDLC, CES, Marte, Hinds, so on and so on.
A good number of these dudes are fine in the minors against meh pitchers but they get lit up against top level pitching talent.

I have to imagine it's either lack of ability to coach or lack of putting in enough time with the individuals at minors and/or majors.

Reds are seemingly able to get better identifying and developing SPs now compared to 10-20 years ago, so perhaps they need to focus on addressing proven bats in FA and doing a constant rotation of draft-and-develop guys for the rotation in order to be able to stay within their (crappy) budget.

Well, and they need to stop paying $15+ mill APY for defense-first guys with no bat.


Side note - How disappointing have Hays and Lux been now 2/3rds of the way through the season?
Hays is down to under .260 BA.
Lux has good OBP but no pop. 102 games for Lux and only 4 friggin homers. And this dude is DH most nights. Maybe I'm old school and think of the big bangers like Thomas and Ortiz, but I like the DH to be one of the 3 most feared hitters on the team (typically along with whoever is playing 1B and LF).
Hays and Lux were supposed to be the bats that got the team over the scoring hump compared to the last couple years.

What I personally think is this organization banked A TON on the homegrown guys taking that next step, and they just haven't.

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-08-2025, 09:22 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Age 21-23 seasons, EDLC (1622 PA): .258/.334/.456/.789
Age 21-23 seasons, Jay Bruce (1412 PA): .257/.327/.474/.800
Age 23 season, EDLC: .279/.355/.474/.829
Age 23 season, Jay Bruce: .281/.353/.493/.846

Don't get me wrong, Jay Bruce was a good player, but he wasn't someone you could build a team around and I feel like EDLC is nearly identical to the Bruce track rather than a true superstar that can put a large piece of the offense on his back.

We're going to need to either draft, develop (both of those would have to happen quickly), or trade for another big time difference maker on offense if we want any real window while we still have Elly here.

Yes, if they're going to make any kind of serious run with Elly and this pitching staff they've got to go out and get a couple real bats. Our offense is just way to lacking and no kind of consistency, at all.

We can't get the timely hits, we have no real power bats. One of the HR friendliest parks around and we can't hit em. They've got to power way up and fast or it's soon going to be rebuild time......again

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-08-2025, 10:05 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Hitters are to Castellini what Guards are to Mike Brown.

Spot on

[Timanky12]

(08-09-2025, 08:50 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Spot on

The reds record when scoring 2 or fewer run 4-35. That tells you all you need to know.

35 of their 57 loses, they have scored 2 or fewer runs. 

What to fix something, bring in people that can hit

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-09-2025, 12:33 PM)Timanky12 Wrote: The reds record when scoring 2 or fewer run 4-35. That tells you all you need to know.

35 of their 57 loses, they have scored 2 or fewer runs. 

What to fix something, bring in people that can hit

Yup.

Also saw where their record when they hit 0 home runs is something like 16-32.

[Timanky12]

(08-09-2025, 12:36 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Yup.

Also saw where their record when they hit 0 home runs is something like 16-32.

With as often as they strike out, they should be hitting more home runs. That is usually the case with teams that strike out a lot, but not with the Reds.

[samhain]

Don't recall who it was, but one of the radio guys was discussing how the Reds very much appear to be following the Rays model.  They are literally telling us that when the powers that be talk to the media.  They are emphasizing it even more through their behavior.  

Overall this may be a good thing for a team that either is broke or likes to cosplay being broke to avoid spending.  However, TB still hasn't really won anything regardless of how ideal their system is for a poverty franchise.  Are they better than the Reds this century?  No doubt.  Will they ever have an "all in " year in terms of adding a major piece to get over the line?  No.  It's antithetical to the strategy.  

What's more, I think we'd better get ready to see some of these core guys get traded sooner than expected.  TB churns players as others develop.  Burns and Lowder will replace Greene/Lodolo.  Abbott likely will be sold off as well.  Elly undoubtedly.  It's shocking that Stephenson is still on the roster.  They are in a less than ideal scenario with him as soon as the season ends.

If you get three prospects for these guys and one pans out, you win the trade.  

We need to quit waiting for the all-in year as fans.  It doesn't look like a thing to them.

I fully believe that ownership has no desire to win beyond staying relevant enough to keep eyes on the team through the majority of the summer.  That's all they want.  Be sort of interesting, appear good for stretches, have people talking about you, then repeat for years.  They've had their chances to become competitive both in-season and in the offseason.  Their budget is yard sale level in MLB.  They could have signed Soto and still remained pretty close to avg (not serious, just pointing it out money wise).  That's how unserious and cheap Bob and Phil are.  The need has been obvious for at least 3 years and they've failed to meet it, damn near doing the opposite of addressing.

[Timanky12]

(08-09-2025, 12:48 PM)samhain Wrote: Don't recall who it was, but one of the radio guys was discussing how the Reds very much appear to be following the Rays model.  They are literally telling us that when the powers that be talk to the media.  They are emphasizing it even more through their behavior.  

Overall this may be a good thing for a team that either is broke or likes to cosplay being broke to avoid spending.  However, TB still hasn't really won anything regardless of how ideal their system is for a poverty franchise.  Are they better than the Reds this century?  No doubt.  Will they ever have an "all in " year in terms of adding a major piece to get over the line?  No.  It's antithetical to the strategy.  

What's more, I think we'd better get ready to see some of these core guys get traded sooner than expected.  TB churns players as others develop.  Burns and Lowder will replace Greene/Lodolo.  Abbott likely will be sold off as well.  Elly undoubtedly.  It's shocking that Stephenson is still on the roster.  They are in a less than ideal scenario with him as soon as the season ends.

If you get three prospects for these guys and one pans out, you win the trade.  

We need to quit waiting for the all-in year as fans.  It doesn't look like a thing to them.

Reds idea of all in, is adding a defensive 3rd, backup outfielder and a pitcher.  We could get by with our pitching staff if we could score some runs. Adding a 3rd baseman that can’t hit any better, doesn’t help the offense. Get ELDC in the out field, he has 13 errors, bring in a hitting shortstop.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-09-2025, 12:54 PM)Timanky12 Wrote: Reds idea of all in, is adding a defensive 3rd, backup outfielder and a pitcher.  We could get by with our pitching staff if we could score some runs. Adding a 3rd baseman that can’t hit any better, doesn’t help the offense. Get ELDC in the out field, he has 13 errors, bring in a hitting shortstop.

**16!!**

(Which is somehow still an improvement over his 2024 error rate.)