What Would Your Draft Have Been?

[Whatever]

(05-05-2025, 04:27 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Yea I heard he was supposedly 4th on their BPA list at 49.
But still, shouldn't teams be drafting based on a plan for how the player will be used during their rookie contract?

Wilson is signed through 2027, which would be the first 3 years of Carter's 4-year rookie contract.
2027 would be the only real year with a decent chunk of cap savings if cut - $5.2 mill.
Wilson would be 31 though by 2027, so maybe it happens.

Still, my goal would be to try to put together the strongest roster for 2025-2026, not necessarily worrying about guys who may take over 3-4 years from now.
For once in this damn team's life, they need to do more to try to win now. It will happen at some point, right?

To me, spending his rookie year on ST's, the next two as the 3rd LB/sub package player/primary backup, then assuming a starting role in Year 4 is a perfectly reasonable career plan for a 4th round pick.  And that can be accelerated if Carter earns more PT and/or Wilson or Pratt gets cut/traded.  

Looking at the '21 draft, as it's a full rookie contract cycle, only 12 of 38 players drafted in the 4th recorded at least one year as a primary starter per PFR.  12 of those players were also out of the league entirely by 2024.  To break it down even further, only 9 players were multi year primary starters(which seems to be your expectations), and only 1 made a Pro Bowl.  Conversely, 13 of the players that were still in the league last year were playing for a team other than the one that drafted them at some point during those four years.  

So the odds are as follows for a 4th rounder based on the '21 class...

Pro Bowler 2.6%

Multi year starter 21.1%

Eventual Starter 31.6%

Cut before the end of rookie deal 65.8%

Out of the league entirely within 4 years 31.6%