Today, 07:25 AM
(Today, 05:28 AM)JaggedJimmyJay Wrote: I will hope for the best. I expect nothing.
At this point, I am completely unwilling to give Duke Tobin the benefit of the doubt. First round picks since 2010:
Jermaine Gresham - meh
AJ Green - Ring of Honor level
Dre Kirkpatrick - barely decent
Kevin Zeitler - good, so we let him walk
Tyler Eifert - I'll give Duke a break on this one
Darqueze Dennard - bad
Cedric Ogbuehi - terrible
William Jackson III - bad
John Ross - bad
Billy Price - bad
Jonah Williams - meh
Joe Burrow - Hall of Fame level
Ja'Marr Chase - Hall of Fame level
Daxton Hill - TBD, seems meh
Myles Murphy - TBD, seems terrible
Amarius Mims - TBD, promising
Shemar Stewart - TBD
The track record is awful. The three great+ players were drafted No. 1 (Burrow), No. 4 (Green), and No. 5 (Chase) -- I don't award much credit for those. The rest is just a long, drawn out fart.
William Jackson was not bad. Far from it. He was PFFs 16th highest rated FA in 2021. Washington signed him to a 3 year $41M contract.
Gresham was also not bad. He had the 11th most yards by a tight end between 2010-2014. He also stabilized that position for the bengals for a period of time. 2x pro bowler. Gresham, statistically, had a more productive year than Mike last year, maybe the best season by a bengals TE ever in 2011.
I would assume that MOST teams first round pick hit rate looks similar.
The average hit rate for the first round is 57%.
Defining "Hit”:
A "hit" can be defined in various ways, but common indicators include a player securing a starting role, signing a second contract with their original team, or being selected to a Pro Bowl.
![[Image: 4CV0TeR.png]](https://i.imgur.com/4CV0TeR.png)