Your 2025 Draft Grade: The Poll

[CJD]

(Yesterday, 10:24 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I guess that I just see it from another perspective. As for every one that they hit on, seems like 4 that they miss on. However, it's still using mostly other people's work to present "their own" predictions.

Are you estimating that they probably miss a lot? Or do you have examples? I've followed them for about 4 years now and every time they didn't like a pick, it didn't work out. And a lot of times, they offered who they'd rather have picked, and that player often comes out great. 

The biggest miss they've had for a bengals player is probably John Ross. Their metrics really liked him. He didn't work out. But year over year, I've found them to be pretty accurate.

They were not fans of Myles Murphy, for example. They formed that opinion based on their own watching of him paired with statistics, which I don't consider to be other people's work, personally.

They also track historical data such as, "players that don't test during the combine and pro days often don't work out." 

I remember in 2022, we all wanted Andrew Booth the CB out of Clemson. Their system predicted he would not be a great NFL player and one of the major red flags was his lack of testing and injury history. Lo and behold, that was his issue in the NFL.

I don't think there's anything wrong with recording what has worked in the past and what hasn't and measuring a current year's players based on that evidence.

Another example, players that don't produce in college typically do not produce in the NFL. There are exceptions, obviously, but the trend data does not look favorably on those types of prospects. They have charts that relate pass rush win rate to true pass rush win rate, with the upper right quadrant being guys with guys that had high rates of both. In that quadrant you have some of the stars in the NFL. Myles Garrett, Nick Bosa, Jared Verse, Joey Bosa, Aiden Hutchenson etc. The bottom left quadrant has players with low rates of both. In that quadrant you have some of the biggest busts like Clelin Ferrell, K'Lavon Chaisson, Solomon Thomas, Payton Turner, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, Marcus Davenport, Tyree Wilson, Takk McKinley, Lukas Van Ness etc.

And Shemar Stewart, unfortunately, is in that bottom left quadrant. It isn't all busts, of course. The two biggest outliers are Travon Walker and Greg Rousseau. And that is probably what Stewart looks like if he hits. But there are more failures than successes in that quadrant.

I'm not saying the system is perfect, but calling it lazy ass bullshit seems unnecessarily harsh. They put a lot of effort into this, as far as I can tell.

[Luvnit2]

(Yesterday, 10:32 PM)NUGDUKWE Wrote: I just responded to someone else. But he said he expected him to go in the 1st rd. I think his low rank was just them following they're system. His production was bad as well as other metrics. His tape left alot to be desired in many ways although he flashed at times with abilities many players don't have. So his grading is more heavily on what the player is and while you also are judging on athletic testing your not thinking about what skills you think you can coach into them.

It is confusing, if he is doing rankings for every player 1 through 400 and he ranked Stewart 180, why would he say he will be drafted in round 1.

To me, he should provide us a draft ranking position from 1 to 400 so we can accurately access his success rate. He seems like he talks out of both sides of his mouth, if his  ranking system says he is 180, then rank him 180th best player or a 6th round grade.

[Luvnit2]

(Yesterday, 10:55 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: I’m looking at Rene’ Bugner’s compiled grades and those all had A or A-.

OK, that is one grader among hundreds.

Also gave us a B- while many gave us much lower grade

[Gohards]

Lmao you guys are so caught up on what other people think of our draft picks its actually ridiculous.

When it comes to the drafting players, at this point everything is speculation and these “experts” are just as wrong as often as us fans are

Edit: heres a great example: https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1BYseXdRZ1/?mibextid=wwXIfr

[Bilbo Saggins]

B-

I liked rounds 2-6. I'm high on Knight so far. We'll see how well he plays the pass. I like Fairchild at 3 better than Ratledge in 2. Had he been healthy enough to test at all I doubt that he lasts that long. Rounds 4, 5, 6 I like the players there and see the value. 

What don't I like? Only 1 DL selected. 1/3 of the draft went to off ball LBs.  No TE. No trade down or trade back in for more picks. Stewart over plenty of other D players? I've seen some argue that he played a weird role in a weird defense. OK maybe that and the lack of NFL style dropbacks are valid excuses. He still has a history of being juked out of his shoes by not so good players. He has a very high missed tackle rate. He didn't test for agility. He seems to play the game like a damned Scooby-Doo villain or something. I keep hearing about his pressures...he had fewer than a lot of the 3 tech and Edge prospects still on the board. So I don't get the pick. It fits a classic Bengals formula that has of yet not produced many elite defenses or any championships. 

[Luvnit2]

(Yesterday, 10:58 PM)coachmcneil71 Wrote: Agree! Needed edge help and they drafted a top 5 guy at #17. 

Needed LBs with ADG gone, Pratt probably gone ect...They got 2 of the top #10 available backers! 

Needed IOL and they got one plus a Swiss army knife offensive lineman, both may end up starters. Lastly, a young RB with some pop, that has had a lot of touches and doesn't put the ball on the turf.

You guys know that I usually *****, but I can't this time. I like the Knight pick. Makes quick decisions and is very disruptive, much like Stewart. 

As for the "trade back contingent" not saying that I disagree, but it takes a trade partner to pull off such things. Golden just coached up a fairly pedestrian ND LB corps and got them to the NC game. He got his guys! I'm not singing praises from the rooftops about this draft, but it seems pretty damn solid after looking at the pieces that are already in place. 

I feel the only area we don't not address was safety. I had position weakness as follows heading into the draft.

DE - due to only have 1 under contract in 2026 and possibility Trey does something silly and holds out. I know fans want him extended, so so I for a fair deal both sides
OG - I felt we needed at a minimum 1 potential starter in draft
LB - Everything was trending based on comments Pratt was gone and know Al likes to have tough and smart LB room
Safety - I am no Stone fan

I understad people question Stewart's productivity, but show me any player at 17 without any question marks. There is a reason many experts said ther were only 10 to 15 can't mmiss 1st round picks and 2 were TE's.

[Luvnit2]

Great read on Bengals website. Wilson is not going anywhere and read this and you will understand why besides Golden being his rookie LB coach.

https://www.bengals.com/news/bengals-draft-aftermath-pickle-explained-orlando-brown-jr-s-dinner-sam-hubbard-s-lesson-and-logan-wilson-s-open-book-for-rookie-lbs

Orlando Brown thinks Fairchild is already NFL ready, me thinks Brown wants him to line up next to him on Sundays.

[sandwedge]

(Yesterday, 08:15 PM)NUGDUKWE Wrote:

31) Cincinnati Bengals

With only 6 total picks, the Bengals select a single player within our Top 100 scored prospects.

Their average Score (70.6) ranked 18th and their Value from the Consensus Board puts them at 25th.

They didn't light a single pick on fire this year and… pic.twitter.com/hoYmdUcdih

— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) April 28, 2025

 


Here's goodberrys take. I haven't really looked at it yet in full.

I wouldn't or don't take anything this hack puts out there as serious journalism..

[Whatever]

(11 hours ago)CJD Wrote: Are you estimating that they probably miss a lot? Or do you have examples? I've followed them for about 4 years now and every time they didn't like a pick, it didn't work out. And a lot of times, they offered who they'd rather have picked, and that player often comes out great. 

The biggest miss they've had for a bengals player is probably John Ross. Their metrics really liked him. He didn't work out. But year over year, I've found them to be pretty accurate.

They were not fans of Myles Murphy, for example. They formed that opinion based on their own watching of him paired with statistics, which I don't consider to be other people's work, personally.

They also track historical data such as, "players that don't test during the combine and pro days often don't work out." 

I remember in 2022, we all wanted Andrew Booth the CB out of Clemson. Their system predicted he would not be a great NFL player and one of the major red flags was his lack of testing and injury history. Lo and behold, that was his issue in the NFL.

I don't think there's anything wrong with recording what has worked in the past and what hasn't and measuring a current year's players based on that evidence.

Another example, players that don't produce in college typically do not produce in the NFL. There are exceptions, obviously, but the trend data does not look favorably on those types of prospects. They have charts that relate pass rush win rate to true pass rush win rate, with the upper right quadrant being guys with guys that had high rates of both. In that quadrant you have some of the stars in the NFL. Myles Garrett, Nick Bosa, Jared Verse, Joey Bosa, Aiden Hutchenson etc. The bottom left quadrant has players with low rates of both. In that quadrant you have some of the biggest busts like Clelin Ferrell, K'Lavon Chaisson, Solomon Thomas, Payton Turner, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, Marcus Davenport, Tyree Wilson, Takk McKinley, Lukas Van Ness etc.

And Shemar Stewart, unfortunately, is in that bottom left quadrant. It isn't all busts, of course. The two biggest outliers are Travon Walker and Greg Rousseau. And that is probably what Stewart looks like if he hits. But there are more failures than successes in that quadrant.

I'm not saying the system is perfect, but calling it lazy ass bullshit seems unnecessarily harsh. They put a lot of effort into this, as far as I can tell.

I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand, but at the same time, it seems strange that the team can be 18th in average value of the players they drafted, but be given a D for their draft class.  If they are doing their own player rankings based on recorded metrics and their own film study,the Consensus Big Board rankings shouldn't play into it at all.  

Every source has its hits and misses, so tossing out examples is pretty meaningless.  I've got plenty of guys I can point to and say I was right on, but it doesn't mean I know better than an NFL personnel department.  Unless we're going to sit here and quantify it by setting objective criteria for what a "hit" and "miss" is and compare to various big boards and other methodologies, it's not necessarily more or less valuable than any other.  

[Hammerstripes]

It's hard to grade a draft this early, Here's what I wanted going into the draft:

1. Get guys that can get us off the field on 3rd down
2. Get guys that can protect Burrow.

I think we did a great job of getting guys that can contribute immediately on 3rd down. I wanted an inside pass rusher, but I feel ike they are going to use Ossai, Murphy and Stewart inside on 3rd downs. I also think the LB needed some youth and speed. We added that,

We did get some interior O-linmen,

If 3 or 4 of those guys fill important roles, it will be a good draft.

[sandwedge]

(11 hours ago)Luvnit2 Wrote: I feel the only area we don't not address was safety. I had position weakness as follows heading into the draft.

DE - due to only have 1 under contract in 2026 and possibility Trey does something silly and holds out. I know fans want him extended, so so I for a fair deal both sides
OG - I felt we needed at a minimum 1 potential starter in draft
LB - Everything was trending based on comments Pratt was gone and know Al likes to have tough and smart LB room
Safety - I am no Stone fan

I understad people question Stewart's productivity, but show me any player at 17 without any question marks. There is a reason many experts said ther were only 10 to 15 can't mmiss 1st round picks and 2 were TE's.

I agree about Safety. I have this sinking feeling that they are going to let this team down this year. Maybe Golden has something different in mind for them, but this last season they were very horrendous.

[Soonerpeace]

(11 hours ago)Luvnit2 Wrote: OK, that is one grader among hundreds.

Also gave us a B- while many gave us much lower grade

No it was a synopsis of 32 evaluations not 1.

[Soonerpeace]

Looking at our draft more. Okay they liked Stewart so okay. They’re protected with the Trey situation. Round 2 I guess they decided they wanted Fairchild as he plays left guard more than Ratledge at right guard and Knight was Golden’s golden child ( see what I did there?). I was surprised they took a linebacker at 2 & 4. But they liked Carter. They did better the last few rounds.

[NUGDUKWE]

(11 hours ago)Luvnit2 Wrote: It is confusing, if he is doing rankings for every player 1 through 400 and he ranked Stewart 180, why would he say he will be drafted in round 1.

To me, he should provide us a draft ranking position from 1 to 400 so we can accurately access his success rate. He seems like he talks out of both sides of his mouth, if his  ranking system says he is 180, then rank him 180th best player or a 6th round grade.

Draft spreadsheet linkhttps://t.co/CDXLgcMk8l

— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) April 25, 2025

 


He does share the entire list. 

[3wt]

I gave it a C+.

It will all depend on how Stewart and the two offensive linemen pan out. If they turn out great then my score would change. But it is a low probability proposition.

The primary goals were OL and DL. We could have had higher probability picks.

We'll see

[NUGDUKWE]

(10 hours ago)sandwedge Wrote: I wouldn't or don't take anything this hack puts out there as serious journalism..

Not a hack. I like him because he's a fan and pays the most attention to the Bengals. As a fan he's critical because he wants them to succeed. If you don't like a guy like Goodberry I'm not sure who you like? A national pundit who doesn't focus solely on the Bengals? Or someone towing the company line like Hobson?

[Luvnit2]

(1 hour ago)NUGDUKWE Wrote:

Draft spreadsheet linkhttps://t.co/CDXLgcMk8l

— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) April 25, 2025

 


He does share the entire list. 

So he raanked Stewart 19th. If so, he ranked him as best DE (weighs in excess of 275 lbs.) by far available to us at pick 17.

[Luvnit2]

Some fans think our FO is inept. Is it possible the Bengals were thinking into the future with their picks. The Bengals oicked not one but 2 guards and not 1, but 2 LB's in the draft. Will we see Volson and Pratt cut by the end of camp to free up cap space to extend Trey?

We would get an additional 8.9 million if both are cut. If only Pratt it is 5.25 million.

I think no doubt Golden wanted to change the LB room as well and we needed to draft at least 1 guard capable of winning a starting position in 2025.

It will be interesting to see how Bengals proceed in off season.

[*rfaulk34*]

(10 hours ago)Luvnit2 Wrote: Great read on Bengals website. Wilson is not going anywhere and read this and you will understand why besides Golden being his rookie LB coach.

https://www.bengals.com/news/bengals-draft-aftermath-pickle-explained-orlando-brown-jr-s-dinner-sam-hubbard-s-lesson-and-logan-wilson-s-open-book-for-rookie-lbs

Orlando Brown thinks Fairchild is already NFL ready, me thinks Brown wants him to line up next to him on Sundays.

OBj also thought Volson was going to be REALLY good.